Criminality should never be reduced to partisan talking points. The state has a responsibility to confront all forms of criminality without resorting to ethnic colouration or collective labelling. The dangerous tendency to ethnicise insecurity obscures the real problem, weakens public trust, and distracts attention from the urgent task of protecting citizens. At moments like this, one cannot help but remember the leadership of the late Arakunrin Rotimi Akeredolu.
The primary responsibility of any government is the protection of lives and property. Everything else is secondary. Economic development, infrastructure, education, and healthcare all rest upon a foundation of security. Once that foundation begins to crack, the consequences spread rapidly across society.
This is why the deteriorating security situation in South-West Nigeria should concern every citizen and, more importantly, every governor in the region. Unfortunately, insecurity has crept steadily into the South-West, and Oyo State has increasingly emerged as its epicentre. What was once considered a distant threat confined to the North-East, the North-West, and parts of the North-Central has now become a growing reality in a region long celebrated for its relative stability.
As a scholar of African security who has conducted research across the continent, from Senegal at Africa’s western edge to the Horn of Africa and the conflict zones spanning Nigeria, Mali, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon, Congo, South Sudan, and beyond, I have spent years studying how insecurity evolves, spreads, and embeds itself within vulnerable communities. The warning signs are often unmistakable. What begins as isolated incidents gradually develop into a pattern. What appears unconnected eventually reveals itself as part of a broader security challenge.
Many of us who study these issues have consistently drawn attention to the vulnerabilities along Nigeria’s southwestern flank. We observed developments in the Central Sahel and watched extremist groups steadily expand their operational reach. We warned that the Oke Ogun axis of Oyo State and adjoining border regions were particularly vulnerable, as terrorists increasingly overran parts of northern Benin Republic. Nigeria shares a significant border with Benin, and geography alone makes complacency dangerous.
The signs are now becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. The insecurity troubling Oyo State has not emerged overnight. It has been recurring, and cumulative. There was the devastating explosion in Ibadan that shocked the nation and exposed troubling governance failures in its aftermath. Public attention shifted from the disaster itself to revelations that funds intended for post-disaster relief had reportedly been placed in fixed deposits, while victims awaited assistance.
Rather than confronting the growing challenge with urgency and strategic thinking, there has been a tendency in some quarters to explain away security incidents as politically motivated or as products of electoral calculations. Such explanations are intellectually lazy and strategically dangerous. They substitute political convenience for serious security analysis.
There was the attack around Old Oyo National Park. Then came repeated terrorist-linked incidents in Ogbomoso. Most recently, there was the kidnapping incident in the heart of Ibadan itself, demonstrating that no location can any longer be assumed immune from criminal violence. These incidents form a troubling pattern that should command the full attention of policymakers and security managers.
Even more concerning is the emerging overlap between narcotics production and insecurity in parts of the South-West. The recent discovery of the Abidagba methamphetamine laboratory should not be viewed merely as a drug enforcement story. Around the same period, armed men abducted dozens of pupils and teachers in neighbouring Oyo State. Proximity alone does not establish collaboration. However, when organised criminal enterprises and violent extremist activities begin emerging simultaneously within the same geographical spaces, responsible governments must pay attention.
The evidence from West Africa is clear. Drug trafficking and insecurity frequently reinforce one another. Since the outbreak of Boko Haram violence in 2009, the connections between illicit economies and armed groups have become increasingly visible across Nigeria. Globally, criminal enterprises often operate within interconnected ecosystems. Drug trafficking organisations generate enormous financial resources, while violent groups require funding, logistics, transportation networks, safe havens, and access to illicit markets.
No serious chief security officers (as governors often claim) should dismiss these developments. What is perhaps most disappointing is the response from political leaders. Rather than confronting the growing challenge with urgency and strategic thinking, there has been a tendency in some quarters to explain away security incidents as politically motivated or as products of electoral calculations. Such explanations are intellectually lazy and strategically dangerous. They substitute political convenience for serious security analysis.
Criminality should never be reduced to partisan talking points. The state has a responsibility to confront all forms of criminality without resorting to ethnic colouration or collective labelling. The dangerous tendency to ethnicise insecurity obscures the real problem, weakens public trust, and distracts attention from the urgent task of protecting citizens. At moments like this, one cannot help but remember the leadership of the late Arakunrin Rotimi Akeredolu.
This is not the time for excuses. It is not the time for political calculations. It is not the time for denial. This is the time to act. The current governors must rediscover the spirit of Arakunrin Akeredolu. They must rise above partisan considerations, embrace their constitutional responsibility, and provide the leadership that this moment demands.
Whatever one’s political preferences, Akeredolu demonstrated courage, conviction, and strategic clarity on matters of regional security. When the establishment of Amotekun faced resistance from the federal authorities, including the Attorney-General of the Federation at the time, Akeredolu refused to retreat. He understood that the security of his people required bold action. He rallied his colleagues, defended the initiative, and ultimately helped institutionalise a regional security architecture that remains one of the South-West’s most important innovations on community policing.
He was willing to challenge orthodoxy when circumstances demanded it. Today, many citizens are left wondering whether the current generation of South-West governors possesses the same courage, imagination, and sense of urgency. The threats confronting the region are evolving rapidly, yet the political response often appears hesitant, fragmented, and reactive. The South-West does not need panic. It needs leadership.
Governors must strengthen intelligence gathering, improve coordination among security agencies, deepen community-based security mechanisms, invest in border surveillance, address the criminal economies sustaining violence, and ensure that Amotekun evolves into a more capable and intelligence-driven institution.
Most importantly, they must demonstrate the political courage necessary to confront emerging threats before they become entrenched. History offers many examples of regions that ignored early warning signs until insecurity became a permanent feature of daily life. The South-West still has an opportunity to avoid that fate. But opportunities do not remain open indefinitely.
This is not the time for excuses. It is not the time for political calculations. It is not the time for denial. This is the time to act. The current governors must rediscover the spirit of Arakunrin Akeredolu. They must rise above partisan considerations, embrace their constitutional responsibility, and provide the leadership that this moment demands.
The people of South-West Nigeria deserve nothing less.
Oluwole Ojewale is a senior researcher at the Institute for Security, Dakar, Senegal.
