President Bola Tinubu is heading to the 2027 presidential election with the advantage of incumbency, a formidable political structure and his party’s control of several states, but the decision of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) to zone its presidential ticket to the South may have introduced a new layer of political uncertainty that could reshape calculations in the region.
The South, comprising 17 states, is widely considered Mr Tinubu’s strong political base.
For the first time since the 2023 election, a major opposition party in Nigeria appears to be reorganising around a southern candidate capable of directly confronting Mr Tinubu in territories that he banks on to win the 2027 election.
The development comes amid leadership crises in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the African Democratic Congress (ADC), with the latter intended as a coalition of opposition forces against the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
The South: 17 states, divided political control
Nigeria’s southern region comprises 17 states across the South-west, South-east and South-south geopolitical zones.
The South-west consists of Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Osun, Ondo and Ekiti states. The South-east comprises Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu and Imo, while the South-south comprises Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Edo and Rivers.
Based on the current political map, the APC controls a significant portion of the South, particularly the South-west, Mr Tinubu’s traditional stronghold. The APC currently controls 13 southern states, while opposition parties govern Oyo, Osun, Anambra and Abia. Governors in three states not controlled by the APC (Osun, Anambra, and Abia) have also spoken in support of Mr Tinubu’s re-election.
On paper, the numbers suggest the 2027 election may not appear overly competitive for Mr Tinubu, largely because governors and party leaders in APC-controlled states are expected to deploy their political structures in support of his re-election bid.
How Tinubu performed in the South in 2023
The 2023 presidential election showed both Mr Tinubu’s strengths and vulnerabilities in the South.
According to official election results, Mr Tinubu dominated the South-west with 2,279,407 votes representing about 53.6 per cent of total valid votes cast in the zone, but performed poorly in the South-east, where Peter Obi, the Labour Party (LP) candidate at the time, won all five states.
Mr Tinubu won Ekiti, Ondo, Ogun, Oyo, Cross River, Rivers and Edo states, but lost Lagos, Osun, Delta, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Abia, Anambra, Enugu, Ebonyi and Imo.
In Lagos, Mr Obi defeated Mr Tinubu by about 9,848 votes in the latter’s political stronghold. While Mr Obi polled 582,454 votes, Mr Tinubu secured 572,606 votes. The result exposed cracks within the APC’s urban support structure and demonstrated the influence of youth, middle-class voters and protest-driven political mobilisation.
In Osun, Mr Tinubu lost partly because of the popularity of Governor Ademola Adeleke, who was then a PDP member, and partly because of internal APC divisions at the time. Osun was the only Southern state that the PDP won in the presidential election.
In the South-east, Mr Obi’s ethnic and regional appeal produced overwhelming victories, while in parts of the South-south, anger over oil politics, economic hardship, dissatisfaction with the APC government, and Mr Obi’s popularity weakened Mr Tinubu’s acceptance.
In Rivers State, Mr Tinubu received 231,591 votes, accounting for roughly 44 per cent of the total valid votes cast. That victory became one of the APC’s most significant breakthroughs outside the South-west; although the state’s result became controversial after a PREMIUM TIMES investigation showed that Mr Obi, not Mr Tinubu, actually had the majority of the votes in the state.
Across the entire South, Mr Tinubu secured approximately 3.2 million votes. Those southern votes represented roughly 36 per cent of Mr Tinubu’s total national votes of 8,794,726.
What may change in 2027
The political environment ahead of 2027 is significantly different from that of 2023.
In 2023, opposition votes were fragmented between Mr Obi, Atiku Abubakar, Rabiu Kwankwaso and others. Mr Tinubu benefited from that division and won the presidential election with about 36 per cent of the national vote.
But the NDC’s decision to zone its presidency to the South is expected to prevent Mr Tinubu from monopolising southern political sentiment.
The calculation appears straightforward. NDC believes that if another strong southern candidate emerges under a major opposition platform, Mr Tinubu may not enjoy a regional advantage as the “southern candidate,” especially with NDC saying its southern candidate will only spend one term in office – an appeal to northern voters.
This could become particularly dangerous for the APC in southern states, especially the South-east and South-south, where anti-APC sentiment remains strong among sections of voters, especially the youth.
The NDC’s strategy may face a serious challenge from the increasing number of southern presidential aspirants emerging across opposition parties. Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State has already declared interest in the presidency under the Allied Peoples Movement (APM), while the Social Democratic Party (SDP) is expected to field Adewole Adebayo, another southern candidate, who picked the party’s ticket in Bauchi last week. None of these candidates is, however, expected to give Mr Tinubu as much challenge as Mr Obi would if he emerges as the NDC candidate.
However, the development also raises the possibility of a fragmented southern opposition. The emergence of multiple southern candidates could divide anti-APC votes across several parties, as happened during the 2023 presidential election.
Political observers also believe the situation could indirectly benefit Mr Tinubu despite increasing dissatisfaction in parts of the South. While more southern candidates may weaken the APC’s dominance in some states, they could also reduce the chances of the opposition producing a single formidable challenger capable of mobilising broad regional and national support.
Can Tinubu still dominate the South-west?
Despite the threat, Mr Tinubu still enters the 2027 race as the favourite in much of the South-west.
The APC maintains strong political structures in all the South-west states. Mr Tinubu also retains influence among governors, lawmakers and traditional political networks built over decades.
However, the emergence of other southern opposition candidates, particularly Messrs Obi and Makinde, could substantially reduce Mr Tinubu’s margins, especially among urban voters, first-time voters, frustrated youth and economically disadvantaged citizens affected by inflation and reforms.
The removal of fuel subsidy and naira devaluation have created economic pressures that opposition parties are expected to weaponise heavily during campaigns.
Unlike 2023 when Mr Obi was strongest among youth and Christians in urban centres, the NDC appears to be attempting a coalition involving disenchanted PDP, ADC and LP supporters.
South-east remains Tinubu’s biggest hurdle
The South-east is still expected to remain a difficult terrain for Mr Tinubu, despite the APC now controlling most of the states in the region, unlike in 2023.
The APC has historically struggled in the region, and unless there is a major political realignment, Mr Tinubu may again lose most states there.
If the NDC eventually fields a southern candidate with cross-regional appeal, particularly someone acceptable to both South-east and South-south voters, the APC could face even stronger resistance.
South-south could become the battleground
Analysts believe the South-south may eventually decide how competitive the South becomes in 2027.
In 2023, the region’s votes were shared among the APC, PDP and LP candidates. But with the PDP weakened by leadership battles and defections, a reorganised NDC could emerge as a serious alternative platform in the oil-rich region.
The founder and national leader of the NDC, Seriake Dickson, a senator and former governor of Bayelsa State, could use his influence to position the party as a credible opposition force in the region.
The South-south has historically responded strongly to issues of resource control, equity, restructuring and regional inclusion. Any southern opposition candidate who can tap into those sentiments could significantly hurt Mr Tinubu’s numbers.
How NDC is transforming into a major opposition force
The NDC’s sudden rise is tied largely to the collapse of opposition unity elsewhere.
The PDP has continued to battle internal leadership crises, defections and disagreements over zoning. Meanwhile, the ADC that initially attracted major opposition figures has suffered serious fractures.
Recent defections into the NDC have further strengthened perceptions that the party may become Nigeria’s new opposition rallying platform.
In recent weeks, several lawmakers defected from the ADC and other parties to the NDC in the National Assembly.
These include 19 members of the House of Representatives. In the Senate, the Minority Whip, Tony Nwoye, and the senator representing Anambra Central, Victor Umeh, also defected from the ADC to the NDC.
The lawmakers are from the South-east, North-west and North-central zones, suggesting that the NDC may be attempting to build a national coalition rather than a purely regional movement.
Political observers say the NDC’s biggest advantage presently is timing.
With the PDP weakened, the ADC divided and voter frustration rising over economic conditions, the NDC is positioning itself as a fresh opposition alternative capable of attracting politicians seeking a viable structure ahead of 2027.
The bigger challenge before the opposition
Still, the opposition faces a major problem: unity.
Nigeria’s opposition parties have historically struggled to sustain coalitions because of competing ambitions, ethnic calculations and disagreements over power-sharing.
Divisions have already frustrated the opposition’s attempts to present a united front against Mr Tinubu in 2027.
For the NDC, zoning the presidency to the South may help attract southern voters, but it could also alienate northern political interests if not carefully managed.
What this means for Tinubu
For Mr Tinubu, the implication is that southern support may no longer be taken for granted.
The president still possesses enormous political advantages, including incumbency, APC’s nationwide machinery, governors’ support, federal influence, and elite alliances.
But unlike 2023, when southern power rotation largely favoured him, 2027 may present a different contest where other southern candidates compete directly for the same regional legitimacy.
If the opposition succeeds in unifying southern votes while maintaining northern alliances, Mr Tinubu could face a far more competitive election than in 2023.
However, if opposition fragmentation persists, the APC may once again benefit from divided challengers, just as it did four years earlier.
READ ALSO: How NDC may leverage APC, PDP tensions to gain ground in Plateau
Stakeholders speak
The Director of the Centre for Human Rights and Accountability Network (CHRAN), Franklin Isong, told PREMIUM TIMES that zoning does not necessarily determine the winner of an election, arguing that the strength of a political party and its candidate matters more.
Mr Isong said Nigeria’s electoral system has evolved in a way that often allows wealthy politicians to emerge victorious regardless of zoning considerations.
“Zoning has never been the basis of good governance in Nigeria, and zoning has never decided who governed the country. What decides who governs the country is currently the political party.
“Nigeria is unfortunately practising a democracy where you could have the best person with good intentions, but because they’re not in a party that is more popular, that has the billions, they’ll not emerge because we have monetised our democracy. It has become such that the billionaires now win not based on merit, competency or zoning,” he said.
On whether the NDC’s decision to zone its presidential ticket to the South could weaken Mr Tinubu’s chances, Mr Isong maintained that the president’s performance would be a far more significant factor in shaping voter decisions in the South.
“What will weaken Tinubu’s ambition or popularity in the South will be his performance. The voters will have to carry his scorecard and begin to check what he has done in the South. Take, for instance, in Akwa Ibom State, what has he been able to do? The East-West Road was done by the past government; it’s still there. The Calabar-Itu highway is still there, not yet completed.
“If you have someone, for instance, who emerges from the South and if he’s seen as someone who could actually give the people of Akwa Ibom State what they need and what they have asked for, they’ll go for the person,” he said.
Similarly, the NDC National Secretary, Ikenna Enekweizu, told this newspaper that the party is repositioning itself to address the economic hardship many Nigerians associate with Mr Tinubu’s administration.
“Currently, the opposition to the APC government is not just opposition to political parties; it’s every Nigerian who is not happy with what is going on today. When you talk about opposition, it’ll be wrong to just look at the political parties alone; you should look at the Nigerians who are in pain, who want this government out,” he said.
Mr Enekweizu said the NDC’s decision to zone its presidential ticket to the South was based on fairness and equity, insisting that the region should complete its expected eight-year tenure.
“We believed that the next president, if we’re able to impeach Bola Tinubu, should come from the South to ensure that the eight years the South has been entitled to is completed by that person. So, it’s not about NDC; it’s about Nigerians, about fairness, and about equity. It’s about Nigeria, not about Bola Tinubu,” he stated.
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