I write on behalf of myself and the rest of the masses of Nigeria. With the wastage and hopelessness that the Tinubu administration has thrown Nigeria into, Nigerians were elated when we woke up one morning and read about the possibility of the African Democratic Congress. We saw from a distance its great prospects and thanked God for the initiators. We saw great Nigerians, men of timber and calibre, John Oyegun, David Mark, Bashiru Lawal, Rauf Arigbesola, Rotimi Amaechi, Nasir El Rufai, Peter Obi and many others as the promoters and then, we heaved a sigh of relief because we felt that these are people who know better, who have made it in life and who are not coming together for any selfish, ulterior or self-centred reasons, but who have come together to lay a foundation for a new Nigeria that the future generations will be proud of. We all know that most of these great men also made some terrible mistakes when they were in power, which helped in setting Nigeria backwards by 60 years, but we were happy that they were coming together and we trusted that they had realised their errors of the past and are now poised to join hands to correct them. But alas, it appears that we are heading to another disappointment.
This is because the PDP had, since its inception, adopted the principle of zoning, while the APC, from birth, has also done the same. Not that this is the best arrangement preferred by Nigerians (which was rotating the presidency among the six geopolitical zones), but to placate the core north, including some of them who are now in the ADC, the southern leaders decided to let the sleeping dog lie. Now, according to this zoning arrangement, which Nigerians have welcomed and seen as fair, the presidency is in the south, and most strangely, David Mark, Rauf Arigbesola, Rotimi Amaechi, Bashiru Lawal and others have become confused as to the right decision to take. One excuse for the confusion is that ADC’s constitution does not prescribe zoning. But from all indications, this deliberate confusion arises because a certain candidate needs to be favoured to fly the party’s ticket in 2027. Atiku Abubakar precisely.
The one trillion-dollar question is whether Atiku Abubakar has what it takes to wrestle power from the incumbent. As highly respected and accomplished Nigerians, whom we believe are not coming back into the political boxing ring to make money or secure positions, but to reposition the country on the right landscape, it will be a great shame if you people fail; it will be such a monumental shame that most unfortunately, will follow each and every one of you to the grave. Therefore, you cannot afford to fail at this point in your life, and so I will tell you the hard truth with objective reasons.
If you people decide not to zone the presidency to the South and proceed to conduct the primary election, Atiku Abubakar will win with a landslide. This is because dollars will flow. However, that is where this artificial victory and that of ADC end. I make that submission for the following reasons, which of course, every one of you knows too well, more than I and the rest of the Nigerian masses.
Before you finally decide on the line of action to take, and if you want to ensure a resounding victory for the party and, by extension, for Nigerians in 2027, I want to state as follows:
Zoning effect: The principle of zoning has come to stay in Nigeria, and any decision contrary to that is not just an unnecessary political risk but is also dead on arrival. Except for the core northern moslems, Atiku Abubakar will not receive the vote of the rest of Nigerians if this arrangement is tinkered with.
Bad precedent: If a northerner takes over the presidency in 2027, that will upset the political equation and set a bad precedent that will be difficult to reverse, and so the South and fair-minded northerners will fight against it to a logical end. What does an experienced marketer who decides to sell rotten eggs expect?
The fear of domination of the Fulani: Nigerians are grumbling so much against the Fulani for dominating the political space. A tribe with six million people, produced Tafawa Belewa (1960-1966), Shehu Shagari (1979-1983), Buhari (1984), Atiku Abubakar (1999-2007), Yar’adua (2007-2010), Sambo (2010-2015) and Buhari (2015-2023), that is five presidents and two Vice Presidents within 65 years, and now Atiku Abubakar wants to take overpower in 2027! Haba! Is the Fulani the only race in the country? Is it the richest or the most educated and intelligent tribe? Or is it the tribe that produces the J.F. Kennedys, Abraham Lincolns, Lee Kuan Yew, and Paul Kagame? That is, are they the most endowed tribe with the brilliance to lead our country to be at least like South Africa?
Nigerians are asking if laws, policies, decisions, rules and arrangements made for Nigerians do not apply to the Fulani. So, why will one Fulani leave the presidency in 2023, and another Fulani want to take over in the same 2023, and then in 2027? Another question is, will the Fulani accept it if it were the other way round?
In Nigeria, elections are won in one of three ways: based on dollars, snatch it and run away with it, or free and fair suffrage.
Based on dollars: If the 2027 election is based on dollars, Atiku, Obi or any other candidate cannot match Tinubu.
Snatch it and run away with it: Again, if Nigerians decide to sleep like in 2023, and 2027 election results are to be snatched and made away with, Tinubu will do it far better; in fact, Tinubu will throw Atiku on the ground and feed him with sand.
Based on free and fair suffrage: From all indications, no Nigerian is prepared to sleep in 2027, and the Independent National Electoral Commission, the Supreme Court and Tinubu are not prepared to allow Nigeria to be burnt down, and so 2027 will be free and fair. Based on this, reality dictates that Obi may win by above 75 per cent.
PDP collapse and its effect on Atiku: In 2023, Atiku “won” many votes from PDP states in the South-South, South-West and the Middle Belt.
Today, most of those governors who made that happen have decamped to the APC. So, tell me where Atiku will get his votes and where his hope lies. Who will rig for him in these states?
Nigerians suffered so much under Buhari and are suffering under Tinubu on account of age and age-related sicknesses, and the inefficiencies consequent on that. Which fool in his most foolish senses in Nigeria will want to vote for an 80-year-old Atiku in 2027?
In summary, an ADC ticket for Atiku is a victory for Tinubu. This is because if Obi is sidelined, all the Obidients, the entire South-East and South-South, the Middle Belt and most of the Christian North will prefer a Tinubu than a thousand Atikus. Yes, Tinubu has indeed run down our lives from 75 per cent in 2023 down to 25 per cent in 2025; that is, most Nigerians are only 25 per cent alive and 75 per cent dead, yet we will vote for him instead of Atiku, because of the reasons already adduced.
In 2022, I predicted that should Tinubu become president in 2023, that in terms of corruption, he will be Ferdinand Marcus of Philippines plus Sese Seko Mobutu of Zaire, and in terms of autocracy and despotism, he will be Idi Amin of Uganda plus Sani Abacha, but in terms of sit-tight presidency, Nigeria should prepare for Paul Biyya of Cameroon plus Mathew Kereku of Benin Republic. With his manoeuvring of PDP, LP and other parties to collapse into APC, the foundation for one party state and life presidency has been laid, and from 2027, many of these predictions will show up, yet most Nigerians will prefer to vote for Tinubu than any Atiku. And for effects, there’s no way Atiku can win 2027, even if Angel Gabriel becomes his running mate, let alone Peter Obi being his running mate. The earlier you people, our ADC leaders, confront these realities, the better for every Nigerian.
Graciously, there is juicy news filtering in that Rabiu Kwankwaso is becoming sober and has accepted to run with Peter Obi. Every discerning Nigerian knows that this is the only arrangement that Tinubu and his APC will not be able to manipulate in any way, and which will obviously send them packing on the night of February 25, 2027. Therefore, the ADC leaders should do the right thing if indeed they are out to salvage the country.
Finally, I have seen several instances where former political office-holders regretted the wrong actions they took while in office. That is natural and human. It’s also likely that many of the former high-ranking political officeholders fall into this category. The call to salvage Nigeria is now louder than ever before. I, therefore, strongly appeal to you to take this opportunity and right the wrongs you might have done in the past by insisting on the right thing, by insisting on the candidate whom Nigerians can trust, and who indeed will bring the country out of the woods. I’m appealing to you that at this period of your lives, you put away every prejudice, selfishness, self-centred and parochial considerations and work for a new Nigeria, where your children and generations unborn will be proud to live.
Ogueze is the South-East Director of the West Midland Open University
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