An agricultural expert from the National Agricultural Extension and Research Liaison Services (NAERLS), Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Dr Imam Isah Musa (PhD), has warned that the recent fall in the prices of staple food commodities, particularly rice and maize, could trigger a long-term food crisis in Nigeria if urgent corrective measures are not taken.
Dr Musa noted that Nigeria is naturally endowed with vast, fertile and cultivable land suitable for the production of a wide range of food crops for human, livestock and industrial consumption.
He explained that rice and maize have, over the years, emerged as highly strategic and priority crops due to their importance to household food security and marketability.
According to him, the two staples are produced in almost every state of the federation, engaging over 12 million rice farmers and more than 50 million maize farmers nationwide, while an estimated 90 million Nigerians depend directly on their processing and value-chain activities for livelihoods.
While consumers have welcomed the recent drop in prices across major markets, the expert cautioned that the development signals an unhealthy economic imbalance. He explained that, under normal circumstances, significant price reductions in agricultural commodities occur during harvest periods, not off-season.
According to him, “The current price fall is unlikely to be driven by increased local production,” he said. “Rather, it appears to be linked to the easing of food import restrictions, which poses serious risks to local farmers.”
Dr Musa acknowledged that lower prices offer temporary relief to households grappling with food inflation and nutrition challenges. However, he stressed that the long-term consequences could be devastating for local producers, especially smallholder farmers.
He warned that sustained low prices would discourage and disincentivise millions of farmers, leading to reduced production, widening production deficits, increased dependence on imports and worsening food insecurity, particularly among vulnerable rural communities.
The expert further expressed concern that the situation may deteriorate when the harvest season begins fully in the coming months, potentially leading to a market glut and even lower prices.
He said many farmers may be unable to recover their production costs, let alone make profits.
Dr Musa pointed out that the 2025/2026 production season was marked by unprecedented increases in the cost of inputs such as fertiliser, herbicides, labour, fuel and transportation, alongside prohibitive interest rates exceeding 30 per cent.
“Harvest season is usually a time of joy for farmers, but this year’s harvest may be one of the most challenging in recent history,” he said, warning of possible income collapse, loan defaults, job losses, reduced agricultural GDP and social instability.
Dr Musa called for urgent government intervention to correct market imbalances in order to avert what he described as an impending crisis.
He recommended short-term measures such as the introduction of a Minimum Support Price (MSP) for key staples, activation of strategic grain reserves to absorb surplus produce, and debt relief for farmers affected by price crashes.
In the medium term, he urged the government to reduce production costs through subsidised inputs, affordable mechanisation, and energy support for agriculture, including preferential electricity tariffs and investment in solar-powered irrigation and farm machinery.
“The same speed and strategy used to crash food prices must be applied to bring down production costs,” he said. “Only then can we protect farmers, ensure food security and achieve sustainable benefits for consumers and the nation.”
Dr Musa noted that the current situation exposes the fragile and often misunderstood nature of Nigeria’s agricultural sector, warning that without decisive action, farmers remain in peril and the country’s food supply faces growing uncertainty.
