The pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) may rise to N1,000 per litre in the coming days due to the surge in crude oil prices on the international market.
Fuel marketers told Saturday PUNCH that the sudden surge in the global crude prices to over $70 per barrel could trigger another increase in the pump prices of both imported and locally-produced petroleum products.
The increase in petrol prices came at a time when the Dangote Petroleum Refinery raised petrol prices from N739 to N839. Also, oil prices rose above $70 per barrel on Thursday, the highest in the past five months.
The commodity rose by three per cent on Thursday on rising concerns that global supplies could be disrupted if the United States attacks Iran, one of the biggest crude producers of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
According to Reuters, Brent futures rose $2.31, or 3.4 per cent, to settle at $70.71 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate gained $2.21, or 3.5 per cent, to trade at $65.42. As of Friday afternoon, oilprice.com reports that Brent settled at $70.89 while WTI was $65.80 a barrel, indicating a further rise in price.
It is worth stating that Brent crude is the global benchmark for crude oil, and a rise in its price affects the pricing dynamics of refined petroleum products globally.
Reuters reports that the US-Iran tension pushed both crude benchmarks into technically overbought territory, with Brent closing at its highest since July 31 and WTI closing at its highest since September 26.
US President Donald Trump is weighing options against Iran that include targeted strikes on security forces and leaders to inspire protesters, multiple sources said, even as Israeli and Arab officials said air power alone would not topple Tehran’s clerical rulers.
In Iran, it was said that plainclothes security forces rounded up thousands of people in a campaign of mass arrests and intimidation to deter further protests.
“The immediate (market) concern is the collateral damage done if Iran takes a swing at its neighbours or, possibly even more tellingly, it closes the Strait of Hormuz to the 20 million barrels per day of oil that navigates it,” PVM analyst John Evans was quoted as saying.
Iran was the third-biggest crude producer in the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq, in 2025, according to US Energy Information Administration data.
Speaking with our correspondent, the National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Chinedu Ukadike, expressed worries that unless crude oil prices reduce, the pump price of petrol would be affected.
According to him, crude oil and condensate exchange rates are the major determinants of fuel prices, saying a change in either would affect how petroleum products would be sold in the domestic market.
Ukadike mentioned that petrol could hit N1,000 per litre if the crude price surge continues, especially in locations far from fuel depots.
“As an independent marketer, we don’t normally want the price of petroleum products to go up; any increase you see now will be because of this international manoeuvre and everything happening in the international community in terms of crude oil price.
“The crude surge will definitely affect our local market. The price of petroleum products will come down if the crude price goes down, that’s the common principle of the market,” Ukadike said, admitting that the price of petrol may rise to N1,000, especially “in some other places that are not closer to the refinery or depots. That’s the speculation”.
While emphasising the importance of the price of crude to that of PMS, Ukadike stressed that the increase in petrol prices is putting pressure on marketers, limiting their purchasing power.
“Crude oil is important in refining petroleum products; once it goes up, the prices of petroleum products will also go up. We are gearing towards that. The only problem is that it is also giving us pressure in terms of our purchasing power because too much naira is now pursuing a few litres of petroleum products,” he added.
With the increase in petrol prices, Ukadike said sales are becoming slow compared to the December festive period. According to him, many consumers are becoming conservative now, reducing their fuel consumption because of the price.
“The market is becoming slow now, unlike in the festive season when the prices were low. People were filling their tanks then, but now, people are becoming conservative because of the price increase,” the IPMAN spokesman stated.
Another dealer, a major oil marketer and PMS importer, confirmed that the cost of petrol was bound to rise, stressing that the landing cost of the commodity could cross N900/litre if the global prices of crude sustain a northward swing.
“There is already pressure on funds to import the product (petrol) now, based on the pricing info we are getting from our suppliers. The simple reason is the surge in crude oil prices, caused by the tension in the Middle East,” the dealer, who spoke in confidence due to lack of authorisation to speak on the matter, stated.
“So N1,000/litre (for petrol) is not far from the range. It was sold around that price before, when the price of crude hovered around $75/barrel, and the exchange rate was a bit higher than what we have now. That is purely the market dynamics,” the petrol importer stated.
Our correspondent reports that since the Dangote refinery raised petrol prices on Monday, most filling stations have adjusted their pump prices.
In Lagos, prices ranged from N830 to N859 a litre. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited sold PMS at N849 on Friday. MRS filling stations sold the product for N839, while a few outlets displayed prices lower than that of the Dangote-partnered MRS.
Meanwhile, the Dangote refinery on Thursday reaffirmed its capacity to supply fuel volumes significantly more than Nigeria’s estimated domestic consumption.
In a statement, the refinery said it can supply 75 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) daily against an estimated national consumption of 50 million litres.
Aside from petrol, the plant also boasted that it can supply 25 million litres of Automotive Gas Oil (diesel) compared with an estimated daily demand of 14 million litres and 20 million litres of aviation fuel daily, far above the estimated maximum domestic consumption of four million litres.
According to the statement, the availability of volumes above prevailing demand provides critical supply buffers, enhances market stability, and reduces reliance on imports, particularly during periods of peak demand or logistical disruption.
“The management of Dangote Petroleum Refinery would like to reiterate our capability to supply the underlisted petroleum products of the highest international quality standard to marketers and stakeholders: 75 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit, 25 million litres of Automotive Gas Oil, and 20 million litres of aviation fuel daily,” the company said in a public notice.
It was noted that supplying above the estimated consumption reduces the need for emergency imports, strengthens inventory cover, and enhances the resilience of the domestic supply chain.
Dangote also reaffirmed its commitment to full regulatory compliance and continued cooperation with the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, stating that its supply approach is aligned with ongoing efforts to ensure market stability and orderly downstream operations.
The refinery said it remains fully engaged with regulators and industry stakeholders in support of Nigeria’s national energy security objectives, as the country deepens its transition from fuel import dependence to domestic refining.
It added that it continues to work closely with market participants to ensure that the benefits of local refining, including reliable supply, competitive pricing, and improved market discipline, are delivered consistently to consumers nationwide.
“With domestic refining capacity expanding, stakeholders believe Nigeria is increasingly positioned to reduce foreign exchange exposure, improve supply security, and strengthen downstream efficiency through locally refined petroleum products,” the statement concluded.
On Monday, the Dangote refinery announced an increase in its gantry price of petrol from N699 to N799 per litre. The new price increase means that Dangote’s gantry price is about N70 higher than the landing cost of imported PMS.
Findings by The PUNCH showed that marketers who completed payment and processed final slips at N699 per litre are being asked to top up to N799 per litre before loading, after the refinery withdrew the temporary festive price support and invalidated previously issued loading authorisations
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