GS sees US recession if full tariff rates go into effect

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Within an otherwise anodyne note from Goldman Sachs assigning a 45-per-cent chance to a recession, readers can find the following paragraph (with our emphasis):

If most of the April 9 tariffs do take effect, then the effective tariff rate will rise by an estimated 20pp once those increases and likely sectoral tariffs take effect, even allowing for some country-specific…