How could the increased liquidity at state and local government levels, and the increasing empowerment of local governments designed to shift financial and political power closer to the people not count in reducing poverty in Nigeria? How could IMF/World Bank reports of more capital spending at the subnational level not count in reducing Multidimensional Poverty (which is fully a measure of how much infrastructure is done closer to the people)? How can the IMF and World Bank continue to judge Nigeria based on a 2022 Multidimensional Poverty Report when consistently our states have built a lot of infrastructure closer to the people since that time?
It’s been pure rage on social media since the day I decided to highlight the fact that some years ago many states owed salaries to civil servants for up to a year. Some owed salaries for 18 months. These were under the PDP governments of Presidents Jonathan, Yar’Adua and of course the government of President Buhari. I recall that I used to wonder how people could survive without their salaries for even two months. These were take-home pays that couldn’t take people home, as we say. Yet Nigerian civil servants were owed for months on end. When I made the post, of course insults and abuses, even curses tumbled in as they are wont to. Nigeria is not short of social media tigers – a lot of them cowards in real life – who can type the most despicable things that could almost make one give up on the goodness of humanity. Still, I believe that human beings are good, albeit the kind of evil thoughts that preoccupy the minds of Nigerians could make one think twice about that possibility.
Thanks to Artificial Intelligence, research has become a lot easier. I went on Gemini AI and asked how many states owed salaries to civil servants in 2014. It came up with a statement that the Nigeria Labour Congress stated that 22 states owed salaries for up to six months in 2014. This was the eve of the departure of the Jonathan government. I have nothing against President Jonathan and he also led at a time Nigeria could be considered fiscally lucky – with very high crude oil prices. Pundits also mention how we had the best economic management then because Professor Mrs Okonjo-Iweala was the coordinating minister for the Economy. I backtracked to 2011 and AI came out with same results. Salaries were owed for many months. Pensioners were on the streets protesting. Today, that is no longer the case.
Many excuses were given by the more reasonable commenters on my Facebook page. Some veered off to complain about the value of money. They questioned my statement on the basis that naira exchanged for ₦250 to ₦400 in that time period. Some asked what the price of fertiliser was at that time. Some railed about the price of cement. But I simply asked them how we could be speaking about the value of nothing. Admittedly, many states in that era paid half salaries to civil servants, some for years, when a person does not get his fair wages for a month, six months or one year, there is nothing to compare value with. Zero pay is zero value. Yet Nigerians survived that period and today we have totally forgotten what happened. Even if we’ve forgotten, should we become violent just because we are reminded? It is the toxic politics being played by some people in this country. They claim to want democracy, but they are the most virulent troglodytes one can encounter.
I think this fact should be given more wings everywhere by all lovers of democracy and at least the supporters of the Tinubu administration. We seem to be suffering from mass amnesia and some smart folks are capitalizing on this. How could we have forgotten? For those who say well, not everyone is a civil servant; valid statement. But the fact is that a lot flows from the inability of federal, state and local governments to pay civil servant. The private sector quickly takes a cue from that. Everyone will complain of the economy. Even now that we don’t have such a practice anymore as a result of Tinubunomics, some private sector folks – who have increase the prices of their goods and services several folds – still use the blanket excuse of a bad economy not to do right by their employees. This is a bad practice I have tried hard over time to see how we can move against. We see CEO of companies buying big cars and building personal mansions, riding around in private jets and taking expensive holidays but they treat their staff live slaves. Many pay badly – deliberately – and many owe for months (some as a strategy of keeping their staff on tenterhooks). Imagine that you are owed salaries but cannot stop going to work because you don’t know when ‘oga’ will decide to pay three months out of the 9 months salaries he is owing!
Also, once governments stop paying civil servants (in the past even policemen and soldiers were owed), you are simply calling for more corruption as well as violent crimes. Some policemen have been known to lend out their ammunition to people of the underworld – for a fee.
So, I believe that the current scenario caused by the tough reforms of President Tinubu has resulted in some good outcomes. For one, more funds have been made available to state and local governments (as should be the case in a growing presidential system). Everyone lives in a state and local government anyway. Nobody lives in the federal government. Even the Federal Capital Territory has its own governor. A policy that shifts more money to subnationals has also shifted more of the responsibility for the betterment of people’s lives to that level of government. This is very reasonable. And our states are stepping up to the plate given World Bank and IMF’s own data that shows that considerable capital spending is going on at subnational level that outstrips what is done at the federal. I just returned from Ekiti State where I saw a transformation of that town, infrastructure-wise. A new bridge was opened in the busiest part of Ado-Ekiti; a road that hadn’t existed before was built connecting Ado-Iworoko with the Airport at Ijan Ekiti. The governor confirmed to me that the access roads into Ekiti from Ilawe axis and Akure axis had been fixed. Some of these were federal projects of course but as a responsible governor, Oyebanji sometimes gets proactive and settles the accounts later. See below graphics from the World Bank April Report on Nigeria which shows how the sub-nationals are doing great.
Figure 1: Capital spending of sub-nationals outstrip the federal level (World Bank April 2026).
Figure 2: Nigerian states spend nearly 60 per cent on Capital Investment (World Bank, April 2026).
Therefore, as I was putting up this article to draw attention to the very fact that just a few years ago we had serious problems getting the basics done – paying salaries that were due to long-suffering civil servants; a situation which spilled to other workers in the public service and private sector – I was sad to see the latest IMF Report on Nigeria which stated inter alia that poverty had increased in Nigeria. What the report didn’t do though was to present elaborate research, on a triangulable basis, showing how this conclusion was reached. Honestly, it is beginning to look like 2007/8 when algorithms and computerised formulas misled the world financial markets. Is it possible that the IMF and its sister organisation – the World Bank – perhaps two of the most important global organisations have been misled into a confirmation bias mode on Nigeria that makes them to conclude each time that poverty could only increase in Nigeria? This needs to be investigated.
Because the IMF supported every other action of government and ended up controverting its own conclusions. The IMF said yes, the Tinubu government got it right on all reforms. Tinubu was right with the naira; correct with the subsidy removal; spot on with even the tight monetary policy being operated under Mr Yemi Cardoso. The IMF, like the World Bank did earlier, recommended steadfastness in maintaining the reform trajectory. They urged that President Tinubu does not waver because the reforms are yielding results. I would add that the reforms are building a solid foundation for the economy to soar. For some reason the IMF missed two critical touchpoints when it proceeded to puncture the reforms for Nigeria by removing a most critical element – the buy-in of Nigerians. Of course, the entire report has now been titled and projected around the statement that more Nigerians were in poverty (63 per cent). I would say I don’t believe that aspect and I have my reasons. But almost everyone is blind to anything else beyond this poverty claim. There should be some strategy around the communication of these things. You cannot claim to support a program and then deflate everything each time. This can even lead to wastage of some of the spendings we make in different areas. The people’s buy-in, support, understanding, contribution, is priceless, indispensable.
How could the increased liquidity at state and local government levels, and the increasing empowerment of local governments designed to shift financial and political power closer to the people not count in reducing poverty in Nigeria? How could IMF/World Bank reports of more capital spending at the sub-national level not count in reducing Multidimensional Poverty (which is fully a measure of how much infrastructure is done closer to the people)? How can the IMF and World Bank continue to judge Nigeria based on a 2022 Multidimensional Poverty Report when consistently our states have built a lot of infrastructure closer to the people since that time? The Okeyinmi-Ajilosun Bridge commissioned in Ado-Ekiti on Tuesday, which I witnessed, including the sod-turning of the Ekiti Knowledge Zone at Ijan Ekiti are part of the infrastructure which reduces Multidimensional Poverty. Ditto the now-opened Chief Fasoranti Bridge in Akure, which is helping in dissipating traffic snarls and easing business for thousands. All over Nigeria we can see the deepening of infrastructure, from roads to schools, to refurbishment of over 4,000 primary healthcare centres. Why are these projects not showing in the data on Nigeria? Or is it just easier, more popular, and perhaps more profitable (especially to the media) to stick to that story that everything is falling apart in Nigeria? This cannot be fair, hence the need for me to present this perspective and challenge the narrative. How come the fact that this government has seen to the clearing of all salary arrears for all government workers all over the country through the policies being hailed by IMF/World Bank does not count, and only leads to more poverty? How come the fall in headline inflation and especially the fall in the prices of food all throughout year 2025 did not show in the analysis of the multilateral agencies as an improvement in poverty indices in Nigeria? How come consistent bumper harvest in 2023, 2024 and 2025 is not showing up in reduced poverty? Or even the fact that the Naira gained value against the US Dollar since 2024? Why are we not calling for a new Multidimensional Poverty Report since 2022 which will price in all the local infrastructure that our governors have done – including the federal infrastructure which has signposted President Tinubu’s government? I humbly call for a review of the position of our powerful multilateral lenders. They hurt us and set us back too much too often.
Well, the IMF also called for caution in the $5 billion swap deal that Nigeria is firming up with First AbuDhabi Bank, suggesting instead that Nigeria bridge funding gaps with rather expensive Eurobonds. The Fund also indicated that Nigeria should prioritise giving cash transfers to the people (a policy which I most humbly disagree with, not because our people cannot use cash but because of the many boobytraps involved). I have suggested instead that Nigeria passes such money through agriculture – to capacitate production of food – and that we are better replicating what the Americans did by giving only food (food stamps, now called the SNAP programme), rather than just pushing cash into the system with its concomitant, unproductive inflationary effect.
I have cautioned in the media a number of times that we should be careful not to use Nigeria’s poverty issues as a constant weapon, a blunt instrument, that only ends up worsening the issues rather than solve them. Everyone with half a platform likes to chime on about how poverty is killing many Nigerians despite evidence to the contrary. Most if not all these folks are not interested in solving the problem. In fact, if the problem will disappear (as it surely will if we continue along this trajectory), many people will lose their platforms and have nothing to discuss. This means that they are invested in ensuring the problem continues and is magnified constantly into a monster for them to continue to have relevance, deploy in depressing Nigerians every evening, and twisting the knife in the wounds of poor Nigerians. I have listed in previous articles many behaviors and patterns that make one doubt the mass and increasing poverty hypothesis. I also tried to examine these issues from the prism of inequality or informality. I urge those who are genuinely interested in solving this problem to open their minds to these other possibilities as economic issues cannot be solved through one-track mindedness.
I conclude by bringing our attention once again to the data problem. Or indeed, the data OPPORTUNITY. Data is what will make or mar the journey of a nation to greatness. All levels of government, as well as the private sector, must take data seriously. In speaking about data, we don’t mean only figures. Data is any information that can be captured and stored. They could be numbers, pictures, words, metadata like ‘likes’ and emojis on social media and what have you. Developing a data mindset means that we must understand documentation and safe storage of information. Today’s world-beaters are those who understand this and end up selling synthesized and valuable information to the rest after they may have processed and mined data that is in their custody. This is why it is dangerous to have to source our data from outside, or to not process and store our own data. Funding the process of data gathering, data capture, data cleansing, data storage, and data analytics is a major priority at all levels in this age of Big Data, Artificial Intelligence, Robotics, Analytics and the Internet of Everything. And on a macro level, countries like India have shown us lately what can be achieved with a strong stance on self-owned data. India is officially today the world’s fourth largest economy, fourth most income-equal nation on earth, and increasing it is posting all the right numbers on poverty reduction and economic growth. I saw the turning point for India and a lot depends on street smarts, diplomacy, and data sovereignty. As for China, they guard their data with their lives and only strategically release what they want the world to know – what keeps that country exactly where their leaders want her to be in the mind of the world.
‘Tope Fasua is the special adviser to the President on Economic Matters.
