There is a popular misconception in Nigerian politics that elections are won a few months before voting day. Many still believe that once posters flood the streets, campaign jingles begin to dominate radio stations, and convoys start moving from town to town, victory is already within reach. But experienced politicians know better.
Real elections are won years before the first ballot paper is counted. What happens during campaigns is often only the final examination of work that has been going on quietly for years. Relationship building, grassroots penetration, emotional connection with voters, strategic visibility, and the careful cultivation of political trust.
That is why the growing momentum behind Solomon Adeola in Ogun State is beginning to attract serious attention, even from political opponents. Since he emerged as the consensus governorship candidate of the All Progressives Congress, one question has continued to echo across political discussions in Ogun State: “Can anybody really stop this movement?”
That question may sound premature in ordinary political circumstances, but those who understand the arithmetic of elections know why many observers are beginning to ask it.
Politics, especially in Nigeria, has gradually evolved into what can best be described as the 2-M + S formula: Mathematics. + Money. + Science.
Every successful politician who hopes to govern a sophisticated state like Ogun must understand the three.
The first is mathematics. Not the mathematics taught in classrooms, but the arithmetic of voter psychology, local alliances, demographic spread, polling strength, influence networks, and emotional loyalty. Elections are numbers.
A candidate must understand where the votes will come from, who controls local sentiments, which communities feel neglected, which blocs are emotionally invested in power rotation, and how to create a statewide appeal beyond ethnic, religious or sectional politics.
Many analysts believe Yayi understood this early enough.
Long before the present governorship momentum, he had already begun building political structures and social relationships across Ogun West, Ogun Central, and Ogun East. From community engagements to empowerment programmes, market outreach, student interventions, support for religious bodies, and constituency visibility, there was a deliberate attempt to build familiarity with the grassroots. Politics rewards familiarity. People are naturally drawn to names they have consistently heard over time. That is why political branding matters.
In Ogun State today, it is difficult to discuss contemporary grassroots politics without the name “Yayi” entering the conversation. Whether in Ilaro, Abeokuta, Ijebu, Remo, Yewa-Awori or Sagamu, the name already carries political meaning. That kind of statewide recognition does not happen accidentally. It is cultivated.
The second element is money. Money remains important in politics everywhere in the world, and Nigeria is not an exception. Campaigns require logistics, mobilisation, publicity, personnel, transportation, media engagement, and party management. But history has also shown repeatedly that money alone does not guarantee victory.
Nigeria has seen wealthy candidates lose elections because they lacked emotional acceptance among the people. The difference in Yayi’s case is that his political investments did not begin during election season. Over the years, many of his interventions appeared targeted at long-term relationship building rather than temporary electoral excitement. That distinction matters.
Voters may collect campaign souvenirs from many politicians, but they rarely forget individuals they perceive to have consistently identified with them over time. This explains why some politicians struggle despite spending heavily during elections. The electorate has become smarter. People now look beyond campaign noise. They ask questions about consistency, accessibility, and presence.
Then comes the final component: Science. This is perhaps the most underestimated aspect of modern politics. Politics today is behavioural science. It involves understanding how public perception is formed, how emotional narratives travel, how loyalty is built, and how political momentum becomes self-sustaining.
Once people begin to perceive a candidate as widely accepted, that perception itself starts creating more acceptance. It becomes psychological.
This is exactly what appears to be happening around Yayi’s governorship ambition. His emergence as the APC consensus candidate did not create his popularity overnight; rather, it validated years of groundwork many people had already noticed quietly across the state. In politics, perception can become reality faster than many expect.
One of the strongest forces in politics is momentum. Momentum creates belief. Belief creates followership. Followership creates inevitability. Once a significant percentage of the population begins to believe a candidate is likely to win, undecided voters gradually move toward that candidate. This phenomenon is visible in many historic elections globally.
Today in Ogun State, Yayi’s growing momentum appears to be producing that psychological effect. His emergence as a consensus candidate further amplified the perception of inevitability around his candidacy.
Politics is often about perception before reality. And right now, the perception across many parts of Ogun State is that Yayi prepared long before others understood the seriousness of the race.
There is also another important factor many analysts overlook: consistency of political identity. Since his early political days in Lagos State and his association with progressive politics, Yayi has maintained a stable ideological and political direction. In Nigerian politics, where many politicians switch loyalties frequently, consistency itself becomes a political asset. His relationship with the progressive political structure associated with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has also strengthened his acceptability among party loyalists who value continuity within the APC family.
Still, beyond structures and alliances, the strongest force in politics remains grassroots emotional connection.
That connection cannot be built overnight. It takes years. And this is perhaps the biggest lesson younger politicians should learn from the current Ogun political atmosphere. Winning elections is not about printing the biggest posters five months before election day, and it is not about social media arguments. It is not about noisy declarations.
Real politics is patient work. It is years of showing up. Years of visibility. Years of strategic generosity. Years of human relationships. Years of building trust.
Whether one supports him politically or not, there is a growing consensus in many quarters that Adeola appears to have understood this formula earlier than many of his contemporaries. And perhaps that is why his movement currently looks less like an ordinary political campaign and more like a gathering momentum that many now believe may be difficult to stop on the road to Oke-Mosan.
The biggest lesson from Yayi’s political journey is simple: Politics is a marathon, not a sprint. You cannot disappear for years and suddenly expect acceptance during elections. You cannot ignore the grassroots and suddenly remember the people during campaigns. You cannot build political relationships only during primaries and expect enduring loyalty. Real politics is patient. Real politics is strategic. Real politics is emotional. Real politics is scientific.
And perhaps that is why Yayi’s political movement appears stronger today than many anticipated years ago. Whether one supports him or not, one reality is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore: Solomon Olamilekan Adeola appears to have mastered the arithmetic of modern grassroots politics in Ogun State.
The mathematics. The money. And the science. The 2-M + S formula.
Adewale, frpa, a communications expert, political strategist and group managing director of 24-7 Communications Ltd
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