A new pre-election survey in Kwara State has found that voters are overwhelmingly focused on security, electricity and employment ahead of the 2027 governorship election, with party affiliation, religion and ethnicity ranking far behind as deciding factors.
The poll, conducted by the Africa Polling Institute across all 16 local government areas between May 4 and 11, 2026, shows that 66 per cent of respondents identified insecurity as the most urgent issue in the state, followed by electricity at 55 per cent and jobs/unemployment at 48 per cent.
The study covered 5,050 adults across 193 electoral wards using Computer-Aided telephone interviews and was commissioned by political figure Olufemi Sanni.
Summarising the findings, the report stated: “The three big issues that will determine the preference of Kwarans for their choice of candidates in the 2027 governorship election are: Security (72%), Economy/Job Creation (67%), and Track Records (62%).”
It added: “Kwara residents will be looking for candidates who can provide sustainable solutions to the security challenges bedevilling the state; understand economic matters and know how to stimulate job creation; and have a proven track record.”
When respondents were asked to select the most important attributes for a governor, 72 per cent prioritised security capability, 67 per cent chose economic competence and job creation, while 62 per cent selected performance track record.
The report further noted: “Integrity ranked fourth at 59 per cent, and being known as a unifier ranked last at 26 per cent,” highlighting a preference for delivery over political character traits.
Across regions, insecurity dominated concerns in Kwara North at 73 per cent, while unemployment was most pronounced in Kwara South at 56 per cent. Kwara Central recorded 60 per cent concern over insecurity and 54 per cent for electricity.
The poll also found unusually low emphasis on identity-based politics.
On religion, 93 per cent of respondents said they would vote for “a good candidate from any religion,” while only 5 per cent said they would vote strictly for a Muslim and 2 per cent for a Christian.
“Overwhelmingly, 93 per cent of Kwarans affirmed that they would vote for ‘a good candidate from any religion,’” the report stated.
Cross-tab data showed broad religious tolerance, with 90 per cent of Muslim respondents saying they would vote for a Christian candidate, while 98 per cent of Christian respondents said they would vote for a Muslim.
On electoral participation, the survey recorded high anticipation, with 96 per cent of respondents saying they were looking forward to the 2027 governorship election.
Permanent Voter Cards ownership stood at 89 per cent statewide, though 11 per cent of registered voters have yet to collect their cards. Youth voters aged 18–35 recorded the highest gap, with 16 per cent yet to collect PVCs.
The report also noted methodological limitations, including a 53.8 per cent response rate and a telephone-based sampling approach that skewed toward more educated respondents.
It stated that 49 per cent of respondents had a tertiary education or higher, while only 5 per cent had no formal education, suggesting possible underrepresentation of rural and less connected populations.
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