Ahead of the 2027 presidential election, the departure of Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso from the African Democratic Congress, ADC, remains a source of concern for the once united opposition coalition movement in Nigeria.
With a fragmented opposition, opinions are divided regarding the possibility of Obi and Kwankwaso’s joint presidential ticket causing an upset in the next general election on the Nigeria Democratic Congress, NDC, platform.
DAILY POST reported last week that the leader of the Kwankwasiyya Movement, dominant in Kano, Kwankwaso and Peter Obi, leader of the Obidient Movement, had moved to the NDC.
Recall that Peter Obi and Kwankwaso contested the 2023 presidential election on different platforms – the Labour Party, LP, and the New Nigerian People’s Party, NNPP.
Peter Obi of the Labour Party won 12 states and over six million votes, the same as Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, while Kwankwaso won Kano State, according to the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC.
The coming together of Peter Obi, Kwankwaso and Atiku Abubakar under the ADC was to many, a straightforward victory for the opposition coalition in 2027, and following the collapse of the merger, questions now arise on whether the opposition stands any chance of dethroning the ruling government in the next election.
However, some political analysts are of the opinion that the growing fragmentation among opposition leaders ahead of the 2027 general election could reduce their ability to mount a strong challenge against President Bola Tinubu and the ruling APC.
Nigerians are also disappointed that opposition leaders were not willing to make political sacrifices and rally behind a single presidential candidate instead of pursuing separate ambitions.
This was the exact sentiment shared by a former Minister of Sports and Youth Development and a chieftain of the ADC, Solomon Dalung when he spoke to DAILY POST.
He also maintained that the Obi-Kwankwaso ticket in the NDC stands no chance of winning the presidential election in 2027.
He believes that the ADC is the highest beneficiary in the current political power play.
According to him, “The departure of Obi and Kwankwaso from the African Democratic Congress came to me as a surprise, because, looking at how we formed the coalition, which included, I mean, looking ourselves on the faces and telling ourselves the truth that we were going to do everything possible to ensure that the interest of democracy and Nigeria is uppermost and not individual ambition.
“And that has been the motivating spirit that brought us to this point. So waking up with the news of the duo exiting from the coalition came to me as a grave surprise, because if we are looking at the interest of democracy and Nigerians, then certainly there is no sacrifice that is too much. We must sacrifice our individual interests, sacrifice our personal comfort, sacrifice everything to make sure that we achieve the ultimate goal.
“So to me, there is nothing over and above this and so exciting because of the reasons they gave that, oh, because of the court cases was why they were exiting, to me, is a weak argument and untenable, because they should have remained in the party and fought the battle to the end.
“When these cases were lingering, they did not leave. When these cases were in the Court of Appeal, they did not leave. The cases went to the Supreme Court, and the Supreme Court led the issues to rest by restoring the leadership of the party and also annulling the orders of the Court of Appeal and made a clear pronouncement on the jurisdiction of court as to party affairs.
“So that is the apex court in the land. It has laid down clear rules. So what becomes of the cases in court? The cases in court now become academic exercises, because all that the ADC lawyers will need to do is to go there and tell the court you have no jurisdiction.
“So, why would they leave after the Supreme Court judgment which favours the party? I think the whole thing has to do with their inability to sacrifice their personal interest to come together and address the sufferings of the Nigerian people.
“Now you ask me, what will become of their exit and their chances of winning the presidential election? Well, their chances of winning the election is very, very low. This is because if you put together, let’s work even with the 2023 statistics, the votes of Kwankwaso and Obi in 2023, sorry, they cannot defeat Tinubu. So that was 2023. Now a lot of water has passed under the bridge.
“The vote with which Tinubu won the election, that came from the Muslim-Muslim ticket has now withdrawn because they are the ones that form the chunk of the APC vote. The chunk of it now is the ADC. And then Atiku, who has a traditional support base and then the addition to this dimension for the ADC is the Buhari support base.
“Now 60% if not 70% of the Buhari supporters are in ADC. So you summarize this, you will know that the ADC still has better chances of winning the election than any political party in Nigeria.
“What happens to the NDC is that the youth that form the majority of Obi and Kwankwaso support base will support the NDC. They will support Peter Obi and Kwankwaso but that will not be translated into victory. If you assess Peter Obi in 2023, there were 10 million registered voters from the South East.
“Out of that 10 million, only 2.5 voted and out of that 2.5, Peter Obi got 1.9 million votes. The majority of Peter Obi’s votes came from Benue, Pateau, and now these three strong states, as they are today, had been fractured by APC.
“So Peter Obi’s stronghold has already been fractured. So I wonder where actually is going to be his stronghold this time.
“Kwankwaso controlled Kano, but now Kano also has been fractured into so many components. You have the Gandujes from the APC, then you have the Governor who was part of Kwankwaso now moved into APC.
“Kwankwaso moved to ADC and left some fragments of his supporters there because some people have refused to move with him to NDC, just like Obi’s supporters have also refused to move with him in some states.
“So I don’t know what the permutation is. I don’t know what the calculation is. But if it is this politics, I think everything about it does not add up.
“Now, at this point, let me be very frank, the ADC is the highest beneficiary in all this, because I have enumerated factors that swell the ADC support. Atiku has a traditional support base. Buhari’s traditional support base contributed again, so when they left, some of their followers refused to leave with them. So at the end of the day, what will happen is that ADC is the highest beneficiary.
“Now, what is the effect of the migration of governors into the APC? It is negative. This is because most of the governors that left did not leave with the people. The people did not follow them in that decision.
“So they added nothing. APC is the most rejected of all in this political power play, and the worst is going to come during the primaries, because the primaries of APC is again going to leave the ADC with a lot of harvest, and probably maybe the NDC.
“For the NDC, the Presidential prospect is very, very low. They may have members of the National Assembly being elected under the party but Obi-Kwankwaso’s chances are low.
“It was the opposition summit that announced a single presidential ticket, not the ADC. But even if the ADC had said so, what made Peter Obi think that he was not going to be the sole candidate? That’s self defeat. Why did you feel that you have no chances? So many of the people that had confidence in him and were working for him in ADC, a lot of people have been disappointed, me included.
“Because I don’t see why he will abandon the ADC and say he stood no chance. So, was he expecting that in a democracy, the ticket would be handed over to him? So I think there is no good reason or wisdom in that departure, because the coalition is not about his personal interest.
“The Coalition is about the reckless behavior of political actors and presidential arrogance, it is about a sense of entitlement. The same philosophy of Tinubu has been replicated by Peter Obi, because Peter Obi has proved that, oh, it is all about him, his personal ambition for presidency, and not for the interest of the suffering Nigerians.
“All of them that are contesting, are they better than any of us? But we sacrifice not to contest. But above all, the ADC is still stronger, and the ADC is the party to beat in 2027.”
However, while the argument that the current political realignments now place the opposition at a disadvantage and could hand the ruling APC an easier path in the next presidential race, a popular Abuja-based political analyst, Jide Ojo, told DAILY POST that anything is possible.
He said, “I think the defection of Mr. Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso from ADC to NDC is in line with their constitutional rights. It is also something that will give them the clearest and best chance to try their luck in 2027 because it is becoming obvious that staying put in ADC will most likely make them live in the shadows of Atiku.
“A lot of people didn’t appreciate the behind the scenes. There have been negotiations between Peter Obi’s camp and Atiku’s camp. Peter’s camp was wishing Atiku would not contest in 2027, Atiku’s was wishing Peter Obi would be his running mate in 2027.
“Atiku was pushing for a reenactment of 2019 where he will be the presidential candidate and Peter Obi will be his running mate. Peter Obi doesn’t want to be a running mate. He has said to his supporters that he was going to be on the ballot, and there’s only one ticket. It cannot be divided into two.
“So he looked at the options, and if he didn’t defect at the time he defected, in another three, four days, the gate would have been closed for membership registration, which was 10th of May.
“So there is only one ticket, and there are two, three juganots vying for the same and each of them sees their brightest chance in 2027 because Atiku said he is no longer going to contest after this one. Peter Obi said, ‘Give me this chance, because I will do one term.
“And Peter Obi’s desperation is born out of the fact that, you know, the argument is, it is the turn of the south, by 2031 it will be the turn of the north. So if Peter Obi is not on the ballot for 2027 that means he will be missing a big chance to try his luck whether he wins or not, it’s a secondary matter, but to be on the ballot, because once that slips by, it will not be 2031, at that time he will be close to 70 years and people will be using age against him.
“So it’s a dilemma of sorts. But politics and morality are not like oil and water. Sometimes you have to do something because of what you feel is your best strategy to get what you want.
“Tinubu went for a Muslim-Muslim in 2023, because it was a pathway to victory for him. But some other people, if they do it, won’t even get 1/10 of the vote that he was able to get.
“So it’s all part of the political strategy, permutation, alignment and realignment, and it’s within their constitutional rights.
“You see the issue of winning an election, for you to be a politician of note, one thing you must overcome is fear.
“Politicians are big risk takers. Nobody can say at this point, nine months to the next election, who will win. We have seen people engage in protest votes. Nobody saw Goodluck Jonathan losing the 2015 election. But it happened. It was an upset
“Offset is allowed in politics, okay, a Goliath can be defeated by David. So all of this is a possibility, even though people may think staying put in ADC will be a bigger boost.
“But I say, if he stays in ADC and he doesn’t get the ticket, the best he will get is running mate, and that is second best, and he wants to be a frontliner, not living in somebody’s shadow. So nobody can say this is the brightest. It’s all about pathways.”
Meanwhile, for Atiku’s hard supporters, Peter Obi and Kwankwaso’s decision to leave the ADC for the NDC may not be unconnected to the issues of zoning.
Speaking on this, Dele Momodu, a former presidential candidate and a diehard follower of the 2023 Peoples Democratic Party presidential candidate, told Arise News that zoning was another strategy by the Tinubu administration to divide Nigerians along regions.
He said, “Well, zoning has suddenly become important because politicians now see it as the only credential required to win an election, especially the presidential election.
“The APC and Tinubu know very well that if they don’t drum up this issue of zoning, there is no clear path to victory for them. They know it. It’s very clear. But I’m not going to be boxed into this zoning brouhaha because I’ve realized that it is a deliberate distraction from the important issues that we should be discussing.
“It’s a distraction, and I can say it without any fear of contradiction, that is not what we need at this time. Winning an election is about strategy. Those who want zoning have the right. The same Kwankwaso told us just about two, three years ago that he will not be able to be a running mate to Peter Obi and he gave his cogent reasons, one of which was that the part of the country he comes from will not vote a Peter Obi, you have the video.
“Also, I know that Kwankwaso is targeting the 2031 elections already, so the game has already started. So his permutation is that he has to come out now and be like a Lamb of God who will take away the sins of the earth and to portray himself as a friend of the South, so that when it comes to his turn to run, he will be able to point at the fact that, after all, I sacrificed my own time for Peter Obi, that’s being clever.
“But I don’t know. I believe in the God factor. We don’t know who will be here in 2031 or not. I know that he’s being kicked and attacked by his people even in Kano. I live partly on social media, just like some of us are being kicked in the South for supporting a Northerner. That is what Tinubu has succeeded in doing, dividing Nigeria into North versus South, instead of us now discussing we have no electricity, security and so on and so forth.
“All we are now talking about is where a man comes from. I think it’s like someone has hypnotized us. We have been jazzed into thinking only about what part of the country you come from.”
However, a founding member of the All Progressives Congress, APC, Osita Okechukwu, had earlier dismissed a similar statement credited to former Vice President Atiku Abubakar that zoning is “self-defeating,” stressing that such a stance is a classic case of self-denial.
Okechukwu condemned Atiku’s stance, noting that the former VP, was one of the foremost beneficiaries of zoning within the Nigerian political sphere.
The former Director General of the Voice of Nigeria, VON, made his remark in response to inquiries from journalists on Atiku’s position.
He said: “How can one of the foremost beneficiaries of the zoning convention suddenly deny its profound significance in promoting national cohesion, inclusion, equity, peace, and justice?
“In the public domain there is throughout history the law with its legal teeth and the convention with its moral weight, governing human affairs. If there was no zoning arrangement, could Atiku have become Vice President?
“Has he forgotten why he stormed out of the PDP presidential primary process in 2014 and joined us in APC, after President Goodluck Jonathan emerged as the party’s candidate?…”
