Only a few have been under any illusion that Nigeria is a case study of attempting to study a complex case, not resolving it. Most experts who believe they understand the gamut of workings of the country have been disappointed countless times but have continued to dole out their theories, more out of being heard than operating in any sense of correctness. I have come to realise that anyone who is still confident that he or she understands Nigeria and its convoluted systems should see a psychiatrist either in Abeokuta or Yaba Left urgently.
Just about a week ago, an array of heavyweights in the opposition political landscape congregated in the ancient city of Ibadan, which, by the way, shares a rich history of opposition in the Nigerian political scene, dating back to the days of the Action Group, founded by the late sage, Chief Obafemi Awolowo, of blessed memory. The purpose of the summit, we were told, was the need for the opposition parties to forge a common front to stop President Bola Tinubu from occupying Aso Rock as the president for a second term. You are likely to say that was not what we were told was the sole purpose. Yes, I concede, but that was the real purpose, except you are not a student of political history in this part of the world.
All Nigerian politicians and their leaders belong to the same vast political party, a big corporate entity with different names for each camp. The members are the same. They have ideologies which only exist on paper, as nobody, not even the members, remembers what they are until the next electioneering season. The members of this huge political empire just change camps from season to season like professional footballers.
A well-respected Atiku Abubakar, who rose to power as Vice President of Nigeria on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party, could be found in Action Congress of Nigeria in another season. He could also jump back to the same PDP before heading for the All Progressives Congress in subsequent seasons, before landing in the African Democratic Congress in the current season. This is just an idea; in case it’s not the reality. So, it’s usual for politicians, especially Nigerian politicians, to change camps from time to time based on different factors, which might not be necessary to delve into here.
It follows that the political juggernauts, who gathered for an opposition coalition summit in the Oyo State capital recently, actually belonged to the same political family despite appearing at the gathering under the umbrella of the PDP, ADC, Labour Party and other unnamed political groups. The ruling APC might not have admitted it, but the officials and a few in the Presidency might have lost a few kilos in weight as a result of what the coming together of these opposition figures has in store for the 2027 calculations.
Expectedly, as an experienced amateur political analyst, I felt this particular summit, unlike many before it, which were held in the name of birthdays, book presentations, weddings and funerals, could be a real game-changer, a seemingly defining moment for the opposition politics in Nigeria. It appeared to signpost the emergence of a stronger political force that might pose a serious threat to my earlier projections, that is, if you had taken my previous amateur postulations seriously.
The Ibadan summit, as highly rated as it was, appeared to have aptly demonstrated what a former French President, Charles de Gaulle, said about promises made by politicians. The former French general said politicians do not really mean what they say and are usually surprised to know that others actually believe them.
Political analysts and opposition arrowheads, who gathered for the show in Ibadan, were delighted as the actors, who were selected to deliver lectures or give remarks, played their roles perfectly, relaying the intolerable evils of insecurity, the nation’s economic woes and the plot by Tinubu to foist a one-party state on Nigerians. The common denominator, however, was that none of the speakers offered a single solution to all the problems they outlined, which was actually nothing unusual for a Nigerian speaker, by the way. We are usually combatively good at reeling out emotional lamentations over our unending challenges, but deeply poor at offering solutions to them.
My emotions were heavily pathetic on Sunday when it emerged that some of the politicians who converged on Ibadan to pummel the ruling party to submission in their presentations a week ago, had decided to seek ‘greener pastures’ elsewhere as the political parishes couldn’t find enough strength to surmount their egos and work together beyond the rooms of the summit. So, what could have gone wrong so soon after this epic gathering? Could it have been that some of these former leaders, who equally had both hands in our current ordeal, were already planning an exit route while listening to the expectedly passionate speakers at the summit?
Some political watchers told me that the summit was convened by a governor who was looking for a way out of a tight political corner he had been boxed into. If this is true, it appears that the strange bedfellows, who attended the event, were in Ibadan to boost their political visibility and further their ambitions rather than forging a common front against the alleged wrongdoings of the ruling party. Could this gathering be another fraudulent scheme to settle some people and grease bruised elbows? In all honesty, these men and women, who had continued with their individual plots prior to this summit, appeared to have congregated to lie to a distressed people that they were fighting to free them. How?
This preordained fruitless Ibadan declaration has set my mind on two narratives that are known to most Nigerians but which some of our leaders are trying, in their worn-out strength, to distort. There are no differences between Nigerian politicians regardless of their political parties. It’s like changing rooms in the same house when these politicians defect from one party to the other. Nothing has changed, as the mentality remains intact and largely the same. It reminds me of my time in a particular state as a reporter. All the elements in the then-ruling PDP are now the linchpins of the present ruling party and holding appointments in the current government. What has changed? Essentially nothing!
Of more serious importance, though, and controversially so, is the idea some people hold that the presidency of Nigeria is to be rotated among the core North, Middle Belt, South-West, South-East and South-South. No sir! The presidency of Nigeria is to be rotated between the North and South, each succeeding the other. The North is to succeed the South and vice versa (at intervals of eight years) as each administration passes.
I’m aware the second one will attract all manners of reactions, and deservedly so, but it makes no difference. I’m not a member of any political party, but I know too well that opinions are free, but the well-informed ones are not common. The presidency of Nigeria is rotated between two regions – the North and the South, period! A northerner agitating to succeed another northerner, who had fulfilled the eight years of the North (immediately or after four years), is just not selfish, insensitive and inconsiderate; he or she is working against the interest of all Nigerians. We have gone beyond the military era when one region took turns to govern Nigeria like a conquered territory in cahoots with foreign interests pursuing a self-serving agenda.
So, our northern brothers (I’m not aware of the women), who are jumping from one platform to the other to actualise their presidential ambitions ahead of 2027, citing democratic freedom and banking on manipulated population, should be told in plain terms that the late President Muhammadu Buhari, a northerner, who succeeded former President Goodluck Jonathan, a southerner, has been succeeded by a southerner. Even if President Bola Tinubu chooses not to seek a second term, he must be succeeded by a southerner to fulfil the eight years of the south. This can’t be negotiated or manipulated, or both at this time.
This is the real reason behind the fall of the PDP – self-serving, inordinate ambition. The arrowheads of the ‘I must get it or nothing’ movement in the then ruling party have moved to other platforms after destroying the PDP, where they will perform their miracles before they fall again. Watch out!
Long Range, are you saying merit should take the back seat while we embrace regional considerations in the 2027 presidential election? Not at all! Equity demands so. Each region has politicians with meritorious track records, even if almost all of them have failed us serially. The Almighty has a purpose for keeping this nation as one till this time, despite the man-made evils we have brought upon ourselves, to the consternation of many of us.
How many of our past presidents got and occupied the presidential seat by merit, if I may ask? We should stop stoking fire where there shouldn’t be any. It is therefore our responsibility to manage this entity in the best way possible and stop behaving as if we will live in this place forever.
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