Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has dropped 14.5% in the past 16 days, pushing the Crypto Fear & Greed Index to 16 (Extreme Fear), which is its lowest rating year-to-date.
While selling has dominated markets over the past two weeks, Bitcoin derivatives data suggest the current trader positioning may lead to a recovery. Analysts are now weighing whether the latest sell-off has created conditions for a relief rally.
Key takeaways:
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Binance open interest has climbed more than 30% from its October 2025 lows, confirming rising activity within the Bitcoin futures market.
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A move toward $92,000 may put over $6.5 billion in short positions at risk of liquidation.
Market imbalance opens the door to a relief rally
From a technical standpoint, BTC has swept its swing lows between $80,000 and $83,000, clearing a large cluster of long liquidations. With that downside liquidity taken, attention is shifting higher.
CoinGlass data shows that a move toward $92,000 may place over $6.5 billion in cumulative short positions at risk of liquidation. By contrast, a drop to $72,600 would only threaten about $1.2 billion. This imbalance means upside moves may force short sellers to buy back positions, potentially accelerating price recovery.
Additionally, crypto commentator Marty Party framed the recent move as part of a Wyckoff Accumulation “Spring,” where price briefly dips below support to shake out weak hands before reversing.
In this context, the sweep below $83,000 may act as a final liquidity grab, allowing larger participants to buy discounted Bitcoin. If followed by sustained buying, the next phase may exhibit a price expansion with upside targets extending back toward $100,000.
Related: Bitcoin’s ‘miner exodus’ could push BTC price below $60K
Bitcoin futures positioning shows mixed signals
Bitcoin’s decline triggered an estimated $800 billion in liquidations over the past 24 hours, the largest single-day event since late November 20, when BTC last traded near $81,000.
Yet, according to crypto analyst Darkfost, the open interest on Binance has risen to 123,500 BTC, exceeding levels seen ahead of the October 10, 2025, when open interest fell to 93,600 BTC. A roughly 31% increase since then suggests traders are rebuilding exposure rather than fully exiting the market.
Broader derivatives activity has also cooled. Monthly Bitcoin futures volume across all exchanges fell to around $1.09 trillion in January, the lowest since 2024. Trading remained concentrated on major venues, led by Binance with $378 billion, followed by OKX at $169 billion and Bybit near $156 billion.
Related: Bitcoin loses crucial $84K support: How low can BTC price go?
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