When Governor Siminalayi Fubara of Rivers State defected to the All Progressives Congress (APC), barely 24 hours after visiting President Bola Tinubu, allies described the move as a bold political calculation — a final break from the grip of his estranged political godfather, Nyesom Wike.
But in Rivers, where power has never been settled by party labels alone, the deeper question remains whether crossing to the ruling party can truly end a crisis driven by control of political institutions and demand for loyalty.
Over the past year, the oil-rich state has been more about power than governance — a contest between a sitting governor and the former governor turned Federal Capital Territory minister who helped install him.
A crisis that refused to end
The fallout between Messrs Fubara and Wike pushed Rivers into one of Nigeria’s most complex political crises in recent history. It defied two presidential interventions, split the state legislature into rival factions, led to the burning of local government secretariats, resulted in deaths, including that of a police officer, and a six-month-long emergency rule in the state.
At different times, Mr Fubara appeared to have the upper hand. He conducted local elections, swore in council chairpersons who were loyal to him, and governed with a minority faction of the lawmakers. But the tide turned sharply after the Supreme Court invalidated the council’s poll, voided the state budget, and restored the 27 lawmakers loyal to Mr Wike as the legitimate assembly.
After their restoration, the lawmakers issued impeachment notices against Mr Fubara and his deputy. Had that effort succeeded, Martin Amaewhule, the Speaker of the Assembly, another Ikwerre man from Mr Wike’s constituency, would have been inaugurated as acting governor, potentially setting up friction with the people of the riverine communities.
Emergency rule and a pause, not peace
President Tinubu’s declaration of a state of emergency — citing the political crises and a major oil pipeline explosion — marked a rare federal intervention. Governor Fubara, his deputy, and the legislature were suspended, while Ibok-Ette Ibas, a retired chief of naval staff, was appointed as the sole administrator.
But the six-month emergency rule did not resolve the conflict. It merely paused it. New local elections were held under the administrator, allegedly favouring Mr Wike’s loyalists, while boards and commissions were reconstituted. When the emergency rule was lifted, following reports of a truce between Messrs Fubara and Wike, the underlying distrust remained.
Nearly three months after returning to office, Mr Fubara dissolved the state executive council and has yet to reconstitute it, aside from appointing a Secretary to the State Government. Soon after, the speaker of the Rivers House of Assembly openly criticised the governor, accusing him of allowing public schools to deteriorate — an unusual public rebuke that signalled how fragile the truce had become.
The crisis deepened when the speaker and 15 lawmakers defected to the APC after earlier denials in court. The lawmakers also resolved to conduct legislative business from a temporary facility, the assembly quarters, until 2027, effectively blocking Mr Fubara from presenting the 2026 budget in the reconstructed assembly complex.
Within days, Mr Fubara himself defected to the APC at an event in the Government House, Port Harcourt.
Mr Wike was conspicuously absent and has yet to comment on Mr Fubara’s defection. The governor, who was later presented with an APC membership card, declared that he was not an ordinary party member, boasting that his card carried the number “001” — an indication that he is the party’s leader in the state.
APC: shield, solution or illusion?
Mr Fubara’s defection appears to rest on two assumptions: that President Tinubu will protect him from Mr Wike’s influence or onslaught and that joining the ruling party guarantees political survival and a second-term ticket.
Whether both assumptions will hold remains unclear.
A former senator and now ambassadorial nominee, Ita Enang, had earlier told this newspaper that the national leadership of the party had guaranteed all defecting governors automatic return tickets in 2027.
Yet, doubts persist.
Asked whether Mr Fubara’s defection would bring peace, Beatrice Itubo, the 2023 Labour Party governorship candidate in Rivers and former chairperson of the Nigeria Labour Congress in the state, said party politics was not the real issue.
“I wouldn’t know what their mind is, and don’t know why he’s moving in the direction he’s moving,” she said.
“I don’t think the (political) party was their problem. There’s something they are fighting, and I believe that until that issue is sorted out, there may not be peace.”
Her view reflects a broader concern that elite rivalry, not party affiliation, is at the heart of Rivers’ instability.
Optimism from within the establishment
Others see the defection as a path to stability. Chris Finebone, a former commissioner for information under Mr Wike, described the move as “overdue political realism”.
“A lot of people came out to say that the governor is not playing politics and that he has no reason to be in politics, so now he’s telling the people that he can play politics, having been put to an unjust state of emergency, insults, abuses, and everything,” he said.
Mr Finebone is confident a lasting peace in Rivers is now possible. “I can assure you that it will bring peace to Rivers. Going to APC will possibly add to the peace we are experiencing,” he told our reporter.
A similar view was expressed by Austin Tam-George, a communication and public policy consultant and the executive director of the Institute of Communication and Corporate Studies, Lagos.
“We believe that the governor’s defection to the APC will bring the much-needed stability to governance in Rivers State,” Mr Tam-George, a former commissioner for information in Rivers, said.
He urged the lawmakers and other politicians to de-escalate tensions. “We urge the state assembly members and all stakeholders to embrace Governor Fubara’s doctrine of placing the interest of the people at the centre of all they do,” he added.
Mr Tam-George’s position reflects the thinking among some political insiders who see alignment with the centre as a necessary condition for calm, even as it raises deeper concerns for Nigeria’s democracy.
Civil society’s warning
Civil society groups remain unconvinced. The chairperson of civil society organisations in Rivers, Enefaa Georgewill, argues that the crisis is not about parties or development.
“For us (civil societies), we must make it very clear that the crisis between the executive and the legislature in the state is about who controls what. By that, I mean who controls politics and the economy. It has nothing to do with Rivers’ people or progress for Rivers,” he said.
He warned that collapsing all actors into the APC could concentrate power.
“We don’t agree that the defection will bring peace, rather it will only bring everybody to one container, and the container will eventually explode,” he said.
“If it doesn’t, what will happen is that President Bola Tinubu will control the state through the back door. At the end of the day, it is the Rivers people who will suffer.”
Second term: protection or trap?
Does joining the APC secure Mr Fubara’s second term? Incumbency advantage helps, but without control of party structures and a supportive legislature, a governor can remain politically exposed — even inside the ruling party.
From the submissions by analysts, it appears defection alone may not guarantee peace. Stability may only be achieved if power struggles are resolved internally or if President Tinubu enforces a binding political agreement.
For now, peace in Rivers remains fragile, tactical, and uncertain.
What remains unclear is whether President Tinubu can truly shield Mr Fubara from Wike-backed lawmakers who have twice attempted to remove him from office — and whether the APC is a long-term home for the governor or merely a temporary shelter.
